Why BP Won't Stop The Leak
This is crazy, disturbing, and most likely true.
What if BP really has no incentive what-so-ever to stop the oil leak until the relief well is completed sometime in the next few weeks?
Robert Cavner from The Huffington Post mused over this idea. Much of Mr. Cavner’s thought process follows that of “Fishgrease” a writer at Daily Kos.
The basic premise is this: If BP capped the oil spill today, then the spillage rate could be accurately determined and measurement would be made possible at that point. The way that legal measurement works, according to Fishgrease, is this: You capture all of the oil from a well over a 24-hour period, apply a separation process, and then you have an accurate measurement.
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But what if there is no 24-hour period in which you have collected 100% of the oil? What if you get a relief well operational before you can collect 100% from the original well? That would mean that the oil flow from the original well would be stopped due to the relief well, and then you would have no way to collect 100% of the oil flow from the original well. It would all be flowing through the relief well at a different rate, unrelated to the original spill.
Then you have to rely on estimates of the leakage. In other words, all oil that spills into the Gulf Coast becomes a negotiable estimate!
Now we have seen the estimates so far. They have an immense range and very little accuracy. So how do you fine BP per barrel for oil spilled? You have to find expert witnesses that can estimate the number of barrels of oil that have poisoned the Gulf Coast and issue per-barrel fines from that estimate.
I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sure that BP can buy itself some pretty good experts that have pretty low estimates. At least enough to cast significant doubt on the true level of damage.
An amazing thought, but not one without its merits. BP has never played fair, and I seriously doubt that they plan on changing their tactics any time soon.
Food for thought. Thank you Robert Cavnar and Fishgrease. You’ve given us a fresh and disturbing perspective, but one that needs to be heard.
Robert L. Cavnar: BP’s Incentive: To Not Capture All the Oil.
